In August, global markets continued to navigate persistent volatility. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are gradually rising, yet the shadow of inflation lingers. Variables such as US-China technological rivalry and global trade frictions continue to unfold, pulling capital between anxiety and optimism.
For high-net-worth individuals, the critical question is: "How can we adapt while minimizing mistakes?"
Noah ARK believes that the key to navigating the current environment is to reframe foundational thinking, anchoring wealth management in an understanding of long-term trends and disruptive forces.
Perspective shapes allocation. In the second half of 2025, understanding "technology-driven deflation" and balancing asset safety with growth potential have become pivotal capabilities for securing future success. In the latest NOAH | ARK H2 2025 CIO Report, Noah ARK introduced a next-generation asset allocation framework: a dual-track strategy that simultaneously targets inflation-hedged and deflation-hedged assets, while incorporating bridge assets to enhance portfolio flexibility.
In the search for reliable returns, the Noah ARK CIO Office advises wealth managers to anchor portfolios with assets that perform well during inflationary periods. These core holdings are known for their resilience across economic cycles, providing crucial stability and generating consistent cash flow.
Gold remains an essential core portfolio allocation.
As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold consistently outperforms broad money supply growth over the long term, demonstrating its value-anchoring role during heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.
Policy-supported sectors also offer high stability.
For instance, certain security-related assets provide predictable cash flows, while utilities, with their counter-cyclical nature and stable dividends, serve as a "ballast" for portfolios in volatile periods.
Infrastructure and REITs are key foundational strategies.
These assets combine inflation resistance with robust return potential and exhibit significant resilience across economic cycles, making them one of the fastest-growing segments in private markets. Sectors focused on digital infrastructure (e.g. data centers) and renewable energy (e.g. wind, solar, nuclear) continue to benefit from the rise of AI and the global energy transition.
In real estate, leasing-focused commercial properties present structural opportunities.
A downward trend in interest rates is expected to drive valuation recovery. Regions with sustained population inflows and healthy supply-demand dynamics, such as select US rental apartment markets, Tokyo, and core Singapore areas, offer compelling allocation value.
Technological advancements are reshaping costs, efficiency, and production dynamics. In response, the Noah ARK CIO Office recommends allocating to assets that benefit from technology-deflation, especially through primary and secondary market investments in AI- and technology-dividend-related sectors (including green energy and automation) and digital currencies.
Primary Market: Early-Stage Venture Capital (VC) Investments
Positioned as "technology frontier scouts," early-stage investments in unlisted AI-related companies offer 3–5-year explosive growth potential, adding upward momentum to portfolios.
Secondary Market: Diversified Technology-Dividend Strategies
AI/Semiconductor ETFs focus on frontier technology assets with exponential growth potential, anchoring on semiconductors as the foundation of computing power.
Long-short strategies in technology stocks help balance allocations, reducing portfolio volatility and enhancing overall stability.
Combined with risk hedging and macro-trend tracking, these strategies manage risks and capture opportunities in uncertain market environments.
Digital Assets
Virtual currencies are emerging as an important form of "digital gold," with potential to hold strategic importance in the future digital era. However, investors should focus on mainstream cryptocurrencies to manage uncertainty effectively.
Noah ARK innovatively proposes incorporating bridge assets (e.g. cash, short-term bonds, on-chain cash, liquidity products, and structured products) to maintain portfolio flexibility and adaptability across varying risk environments.
For example, in a high-interest-rate environment, certain liquid assets can deliver relatively predictable interest returns, which sustains cash flow while preserving room for future reallocations.
Other noteworthy strategies include all-weather multi-strategy, which actively capitalizes on macro volatility to pursue optimized risk-return profiles with low correlation to traditional assets.
Structured solutions, leveraging underlying designs to control volatility risks and flexibly express market views, help construct antifragile portfolios to navigate uncertainty.
As financial markets become increasingly open and regulatory frameworks more transparent, long-term wealth security extends beyond asset allocation alone.
The Noah ARK CIO Office highlights a pivotal shift: tax optimization and asset-holding structures are becoming central to any strategy for wealth preservation and growth.
In terms of asset-holding architecture, tools such as trusts and insurance facilitate asset segregation, risk protection, and flexible arrangements for wealth transfer.
