Amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, investors need a robust, resilient framework capable of withstanding market volatility, rather than an influx of additional variables. 

Amidst the market volatility and policy shifts of the first half of 2025, the eight core trends outlined in Noah ARK’s early-year CIO Report have been largely validated. This is evident across a range of developments, from the continued rise of AI to the counter-cyclical strength of gold and crypto assets, and the evolving global allocation paths for RMB-denominated assets.

This foundation of insight paves the way for confident decision-making in the second half.

Piercing the Fog:
Eight Major Trends Validated in the First Half of 2025

01 Embrace Global Diversification to Address High Macro Volatility

Noah CIO Office View: Asset allocation in 2025 should prioritize global diversification across asset classes and investment strategies.

Validation: Following Trump’s inauguration and the onset of global tariff wars, the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU Index) surged to near historic highs.

US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Soars in the First Half of 2025

Data Source: Wind; Noah CIO Office
Data as of end-June 2025

02 AI Revolution Logic Persists

Noah CIO Office’s perspective:
With monetary easing just beginning, industrial logic continues to spread, supported by strong policy backing. Valuations are high but backed by robust earnings, with low bubble risk, so the AI revolution is likely to extend into downstream applications, with space for further valuation expansion.

Validation:
NVIDIA’s fiscal year 2025 first-half earnings reached approximately US$35.374 billion, driven by its data center business. After a tariff-war-induced drop, NVIDIA’s stock rebounded, rising 17.67% cumulatively.

NVIDIA Stock Price Trend in the First Half of 2025

Data Source: Wind; Noah CIO Office
Data as of end-June 2025

03 AI Infrastructure Drives Growth

Noah CIO Office View:
Fueled by AI and global energy transition trends, digital and renewable energy infrastructure—such as data centers and clean energy facilities—are poised for significant growth.

Validation:
As AI applications expand across industries, demand for AI infrastructure surged. The Shenwan Hongyuan Global AI Infrastructure Index (802604.WI) rose from 4,433.22 points at the year’s start to 4,943.9 points by June 30, up 10.64%.

Global AI Infrastructure Index Rises in the First Half of 2025

Data Source: Wind; Noah CIO Office
Data as of end-June 2025

04 Focus on Quality Credit Strategies in a High-Interest Environment

Noah CIO Office’s View: Quality credit strategies, with protective loan contracts, offer higher security than other fixed-income assets, presenting phased allocation opportunities in high-interest settings.

Validation: The private credit benchmark CDLI Index delivered 10.06% returns over the last four quarters through the end of the first half of 2025, highlighting its appeal in a high-interest environment.

US Private Credit Direct Lending Index (CDLI) Maintains Upward Trend in the First Half of 2025

Data Source: Wind; Noah CIO Office
Data as of end-June 2025

05 Investing in Gold Enhances Portfolio Antifragility

Noah CIO Office’s View: Investments in physical gold (bars, coins), gold ETFs, and gold-linked products can bolster a portfolio’s antifragility and preserve asset value.

Validation: London gold prices rose from 2,657.195 points at the year’s start to 3,302.155 points by June 30, up 25.84%.

Gold Prices Surge in the First Half of 2025

Data Source: Wind; Noah CIO Office
Data as of end-June 2025

06 Focus on Cryptocurrency Themes

Noah CIO Office’s View: Increase allocations to virtual assets, such as passive ETFs or multi-strategy crypto hedge funds, as strategic portfolio components.

Validation: Bitcoin rose from 94,591.79 points at the year’s start to 107,146.5 points by June 30, up 14.5%.

Bitcoin Price Trend in the First Half of 2025

Data Source: Wind; Noah CIO Office
Data as of end-June 2025

07 RMB Assets for Global Allocation

Noah CIO Office’s View: Through one-stop QD portfolio products, prioritize US investments while moderately allocating to growth markets like Japan, India, and Vietnam.

Validation: In the first half of 2025, the S&P 500 rose 5.5%, India’s SENSEX 30 rose 7%, and Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh Index rose 8.63%.

Trends of S&P 500, India’s SENSEX 30, and Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh Index in the First Half of 2025

Data Source: Wind; Noah CIO Office
Data as of end-June 2025

08 Highly Diversified Hedge Fund Strategies

Noah CIO Office’s View: In 2025, alpha may be easier to capture than beta. Highly diversified equity long-short, global macro, multi-strategy, and alternative trend-following strategies can control risks during tail events, deliver solid returns, and reduce portfolio volatility.

Validation: Macro strategies yielded 5.4%, multi-strategies 5.0%, and equity long-short strategies 6.3% in the first half of 2025.

Global Hedge Fund Strategies Excel in the First Half of 2025

Data Source: Wind; Noah CIO Office
Data as of end-June 2025

Foresee the Future: Core Trends for the Second Half Unveiled

Precise judgments stem from deep insights.

In the second half of 2025, global macro conditions remain volatile, with ongoing geopolitical tensions, evolving tech revolutions, and diverging monetary policies. Asset allocation now hinges on trend insights and structural judgments.

In August 2025, Noah Holdings CIO Office released its ARK Wealth H2 2025 CIO Report built on its “structural asset allocation” framework. It offers ten core judgments and recommendations across macro structures, asset mainlines, and strategy execution, heralding a new capital era driven by tech-driven deflation.

Keywords for the Second Half: Tech-driven deflation, dual-track structure, three pillars.

Mainline One: Deflation Dividends as the Dominant Logic

Dual-Track Structure Takes Shape: Coexisting Deflation and Inflation

The macro environment will feature a dual-track structure: tech-driven deflation from AI and automation alongside inflationary pressures from fiscal expansions and geopolitical conflicts. This tension will shape asset pricing as the market’s “background noise.”

Three-Pillar Framework as a Long-Term Strategy Anchor

To navigate the dual-track structure, Noah CIO Office proposes a Three-Pillar Framework—a systemic portfolio blending reality anchors, tech engines, and bridge assets:

Inflation-hedged Assets: Gold, infrastructure, security, etc. 

Deflation-hedged Assets: AI, digital currencies, green energy. 

Bridge assets: Stablecoin yields, short-duration bonds, multi-strategy funds.

Deflation-Hedged Assets as the Investment Core

Assets like AI, digital currencies, and green energy are no longer niche but central to capital inflows via primary and secondary markets. Increase exposure to the Nasdaq 100 and Hang Seng Tech Indices to capture β growth from US-China AI transformations. In a deflationary context, Bitcoin’s scarcity and resistance to credit inflation make it a store-of-value asset.

Mainline Two: Policy-Guided Reality Anchor Assets

Fiscal Re-Expansion Gains Momentum

The Trump administration’s Big and Beautiful Act signals rising global re-inflation. Fiscal spending on defense, infrastructure, and traditional energy injects policy dividends, reshaping risk preferences and allocation weights. Allocate to QDII funds tracking broad indices like the S&P 500, European, and Japanese stock indices.

Targeted Tariffs on Strategic Goods

Trump’s tariff policy shifts to targeted measures: a “10% base tariff” plus “high tariffs” on strategic goods like steel, aluminum, autos, pharmaceuticals, and chips, aiming to force market access or trade concessions.

Inflation-Hedged Assets Remain Essential

Gold, infrastructure, and security assets provide stable cash flows, risk defense, and cycle resistance. Gold is a safe-haven anchor, while security-related ETFs, backed by long-term contracts and budget locks, offer predictability and policy insensitivity—ideal for Big and Beautiful Act dividends. Infrastructure and public market REITs deliver cycle-transcending stability.

Mainline Three: Bridge Assets Buffer Volatility

Low-Correlation Strategy Portfolios for Dual Narratives

Noah CIO Office recommends “low-correlation strategy portfolios” in alternatives, such as short-duration bonds, quantitative multi-strategies, and volatility-neutral assets to hedge equity risk shocks. These include “volatility receivers” (absolute-return neutral hybrid strategies) and “crisis alpha” (CTA and macro strategies) for counter-cyclical performance during tail risks.

Stablecoins as Global Financial Infrastructure

With the Genius Act and Hong Kong’s regulatory sandbox, stablecoins address traditional finance’s inefficiencies in cost, speed, and trust. They bridge traditional and decentralized finance (DeFi), evolving from single-collateral to multi-dimensional systems, driving a global financial infrastructure shift.

Mainline Four: Flexible Three-Pillar Framework to Address Volatility

Three-Pillar Framework Adapting to Market Adjustments

The Three-Pillar Framework balances cycle defense and future growth, stabilizing portfolios in volatile markets:

Geopolitical risks or rising inflation expectations → Increase inflation-hedged assets.

Peaking rates or valuation pullbacks → Increase deflation-hedged assets. 

Heightened volatility or liquidity constraints → Increase bridge assets and cash.

Mainline Five: Structural Design for Antifragile Wealth Systems

Structural Changes Demand Wealth Architecture Redesign

Macro revaluation impacts not just assets but wealth vehicles. Investors should integrate identity planning with structural design to create antifragile, inheritable wealth systems.

Recognize Structures, Secure the Future

Amid the “dual engines” of inflation and deflation and the “dual track” shift between reality and technology, Noah believes the most reliable path isn’t chasing trends but embracing structural strategies.

From the three-pillar framework to wealth architecture redesign, the ARK Wealth H2 2025 CIO Report presents more than a strategy, it’s a cognitive leap forward. We hope it empowers investors to find their long-term anchor in this transformative cycle.