In the current economic cycle marked by changes in the global landscape, uncertainties in the investment field are on the rise, presenting both opportunities and challenges. In this era of investment filled with unknowns, we are like navigators entering a new Age of Exploration, compelled to proactively embrace the challenges of a new economic cycle.
In the current economic cycle marked by changes in the global landscape, uncertainties in the investment field are on the rise, presenting both opportunities and challenges. In this era of investment filled with unknowns, we are like navigators entering a new Age of Exploration, compelled to proactively embrace the challenges of a new economic cycle.
During the summit, industry leaders delivered a wealth of memorable insights and valuable content. Now that the event has concluded, we have carefully curated the essence of their speeches to share with you:
Customer demand drives the journey of globalization
The next China is Chinese
"The best way to truly understand the customer is to become one of them."
At the beginning of the summit, Mr. Grant Pan, CFO of Noah Holdings and CEO of ARK's Hong Kong Office, delivered a welcome speech to the attendees. He emphasized that building long-term trust with clients has been a result of multiple factors working in tandem throughout Noah's development. While the quality of products, services, and the professionalism of financial advisors have all played significant roles, the most crucial element has been Noah's deep understanding of its clients and its commitment to becoming part of their community.
Mr. Grant Pan, CFO of Noah Holdings and CEO of ARK's Hong Kong Office
"Noah's core clients are primarily entrepreneurs who continuously strive and innovate amidst the waves of reform and opening up, demonstrating remarkable vitality. Similarly, Noah is continually advancing with the times, highly aligning with the characteristics of its clients."
As the global economic landscape evolves, Noah’s clients are actively seeking new growth opportunities. However, from the perspective of the wealth management industry, "The next China is Chinese." Today, the market for high-net-worth overseas Chinese clients is substantial, with a significant number of individuals relocating abroad and managing considerable assets.
In response to these changes, Noah has aligned its globalization strategy with client needs, establishing offices in Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States, while recently opening a new office in Japan. Noah is also exploring opportunities in Canada and Australia, and aims to expand into Europe and the Middle East by 2025. This global strategy aims to provide clients with diversified investment options and risk diversification for their global investments.
Mr. Grant stated that Noah Holdings has strategically developed an international brand system, which includes the wealth management brand ARK, symbolizing the commitment to protecting and enhancing client assets; the asset management brand Olive, representing the ability to seek investment opportunities in global markets; and the heritage enhancement brand Glory, embodying the aspiration to help clients achieve wealth transfer and enjoy a global lifestyle.
He emphasized that Noah's newly upgraded international brand system centers around the slogan "Different World, Same Us."
"Different World" showcases Noah's professional experience in global asset allocation. Expanding into diverse international markets requires Noah adapt to varying economic structures and regulatory policies. Furthermore, technological advancements continue to transform market environments, introducing new productivity and investment paradigms. Noah is committed to providing clients with accurate investment guidance and personalized solutions amidst these shifts.
"Same Us" reflects Noah's core values of maintaining a client-centric approach, rigorously controlling risks on the asset side while continuously innovating services on the wealth side. Noah ensures stability by integrating global resources to provide one-stop services and upholds its responsibility for the safety and growth of clients' wealth in response to global changes. Regardless of fluctuations in overseas market environments, Noah's professional team remains unified, dedicated to delivering exceptional service to clients.
Wealth management enters a new global allocation 3.0 era.
"The changing landscape of the global economy is ushering wealth management into the 3.0 era of global allocation."
Zander Yin, Co-founder and CEO of Noah Holdings, delivered the annual keynote speech at the summit. He provided an in-depth analysis, highlighting that wealth management has entered a new cycle. Reflecting on the history of wealth management in China, he noted that since 2000, it has evolved from the product-oriented 1.0 era to the transition from non-standard to standard in the 2.0 era. Now, influenced by changes in the global economic landscape, wealth management has officially entered the 3.0 era of global allocation.
Zander Yin, Noah Holdings Co-founder and CEO
In Mr. Zander's view, in the new era, regional selection is of the utmost importance for global asset allocation.
"Investors should choose markets with a positive beta, while also paying attention to various asset classes and their win rates and price relationships. Additionally, they should adopt a bottom-line mindset to build a secure base and fundamental support."
Mr. Yin also emphasized that 2024 has been a year of transformation and turning points, as changes in the economic cycle are reshaping the wealth distribution landscape. Investors must elevate their understanding to grasp the structural opportunities presented by new productive forces, such as artificial intelligence, while mitigating potential risks. Financial institutions should also shift away from traditional thinking, focusing on a holistic view of client accounts, enhancing client engagement, and truly putting client needs at the core to comprehensively improve their asset allocation capabilities.
De-globalization and the AI Revolution are Reshaping the World.
"The AI revolution could disrupt human civilization."
Zhang Xiaoyu, a researcher at The Academy for World Watch (AWW) and author of the "Civilization Trilogy," delivered a keynote speech on the theme of "De-globalization and the AI Revolution." He highlighted that the current cycle of de-globalization is driving unprecedented uncertainty in the global economic landscape. Taking Kazakhstan's Kashagan oil field project as an example, he noted that what was once a symbol of globalization’s peak is now struggles to continue due to regional conflicts and a deteriorating investment environment.
Researcher at The Academy for World Watch (AWW)
Author of the "Civilization Trilogy," Zhang Xiaoyu
"In the context of de-globalization, the world order exhibits complexity and unpredictability, with regional conflicts capable of triggering disruptions in global supply chains at any moment."
At the same time, the rise of AI will have a profound impact on social structures. Zhang stated observed that AI is on the verge of surpassing humans in language proficiency, and its creative efficiency and skill-testing capabilities have already reached the level of a doctoral student. This could have significant implications for the human job market.
Under the dual influence of de-globalization and the AI revolution, the world is gradually becoming more polarized. According to Zhang, North America, with its leadership in the new technological revolution, self-sufficient energy, and stable geopolitical environment, may quickly recover after facing shocks. In contrast, older continents like Europe are likely to
In this context, Zhang Xiaoyu suggests that investors should seize opportunities during this period of polarization and focus on investment prospects in technological innovation centers like Silicon Valley.
"These regions gather cutting-edge technological resources and innovative thinking, maintaining vitality even during economic turbulence, thereby providing individuals with potential pathways for development in an ever-changing era."
Strategic asset allocation adjustment is crucial.
"In the era of VUCA, strategic asset allocation adjustment is crucial, and investors must proactively adapt to changes."
Weiguo Wu, Noah Holdings' CSO, delivered a keynote speech titled "The New Era of Globalization and Asset Allocation." Wu pointed out that the world is currently undergoing a major transformation characterized by multi-cycle resonance across dimensions such as the economy, politics, demographics, technology, and climate. This has created an era defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—termed the "VUCA era." He emphasized that traditional investment models, which solely rely on financial products for profit, is outdated. Strategic asset allocation adjustment is crucial, and investors must proactively adapt to changes.
Weiguo Wu, Noah Holdings' Chief Strategy Officer
Reflecting on Japan's "Lost 30 Years," Wu noted the investment value of Japanese stocks and real estate significantly declined during this period, prompting investors to turn to global asset allocation as a way to mitigate economic risks. Assets such as U.S. stocks and bonds delivered exceptional annualized returns, far exceeding domestic investments. In contrast, today, high-net-worth clients can similarly leverage the RMB to invest in global assets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, allowing them to precisely capture global beta returns and benefits from international market growth.
Wu also encouraged investors to focus on innovation-driven sectors such as AI.
"Drawing parallels with historical technological waves, AI is expected to give rise to world-class tech leaders, presenting significant investment opportunities. Investing in related U.S. stock index funds allows investors to share in the dividends of commercial and technological progress."
In addition to focusing on innovation, Wu advised investors to diversify their insurance allocations across different regions, currencies, and types to build a comprehensive protection system. This strategy helps mitigate risks from geopolitical tensions and currency fluctuations, enabling wealth preservation, risk isolation, and tax optimization. A well-structured top-level design can enhance the value retention and intergenerational transfer of wealth.
High-net-worth individuals should dynamically adjust their asset allocation strategies.
"In asset allocation, it is important to maintain a mindset and practice of dynamic adjustments."
During the summit, a partner from the Dacheng Law Office emphasized that in the current phase of the global economic downturn, governments worldwide are tightening fiscal policies and increasing the regulation of high-net-worth individuals and ultra-high-net-worth individuals in areas such as law and taxation. This has driven a shift in asset allocation toward financial assets, resulting in a significant increase in market demand for family trusts, insurance trusts, and family insurance products.
She advised that, given the risks associated with real estate investments and the changing financial markets, high-net-worth clients should reduce investments in non-core city properties or those in non-prime locations. Instead, they should focus on increasing their allocation to financial assets, such as family trusts and insurance trusts. These tools enable wealth preservation through "de-estate" inheritance, helping to reduce inheritance costs, ensure concentrated ownership transfer, and maintain control within the family, facilitating orderly cross-cycle wealth transfer.
She also suggested high-net-worth individuals should maintain an awareness of the need for dynamic adjustments in their asset allocation.
Investors cannot ignore investments after making them; instead, they must proactively prepare by identifying key variables, such as inflation trends and emerging technological developments, to keenly track their dynamic changes. Only by doing so can they confidently navigate complex environments, safeguard asset security, and ensure stable returns, avoiding passivity amid sudden market fluctuations.
The sudden shift in U.S. policy direction: Where will global assets go?
"The impact of the Trump 2.0 era has already begun to manifest."
A chief economist at a leading brokerage highlighted the implications of the U.S. "small courtyard, high wall" policy, which restricts the development of China's chip and technology industries through relevant legislation while promoting re-industrialization. These geopolitical shifts have significantly impacted global asset allocation.
Looking ahead to next year, Trump’s return to power may result in the implementation of measures such as increasing tariffs, affecting China's exports. The "small courtyard, high wall" policy may intensify, posing greater risks to China's technological development. However, the economist noted that the elite nature of Trump's team could lead to policy adjustments, such as tax cuts and spending reductions, aimed at enhancing the efficiency of the U.S. government.
In terms of asset allocation, the economist is optimistic about the strength of the U.S. economy, expressing a favorable outlook on the U.S. dollar and treasury bonds.
"U.S. inflation may remain high, making the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds attractive as core asset allocations."
Additionally, the economist views U.S. equities as valuable investments, recognizing the country's leading position in resource allocation among developed economies and maintaining a positive outlook on its economic performance.
For Chinese assets, the economist expects the RMB exchange rate will remain relatively stable next year. With potential future interest rate cuts, Chinese government bonds still offer allocation opportunities. As for the A-share market, he emphasized the need to monitor key factors such as the implementation of consumer policies and substantial progress in reforms, as these will determine the investment value of A-shares and require ongoing observation and analysis.
Diversified investment is especially important for Chinese investors
"Compared to investors in other countries around the world, Chinese investors generally have insufficient allocation to global assets."
A portfolio manager at PIMCO discussed future global market trends, noting that if Trump increases trade tariffs after taking office, this could impact economic growth in both the U.S. and non-U.S. countries. It may also prompt central banks in non-U.S. countries to implement rate cuts more quickly. Against this backdrop, a diversified investment strategy can help achieve stable returns. High-quality bonds and physical assets stand out due to their stability and value preservation characteristics. Meanwhile, stock market performance will hinge on economic activity and interest rate policies, so investors need to employ quantitative methods to build globally diversified stock portfolios to achieve risk diversification and maximize returns.
The investment manager highlighted that Chinese investors still have significant room for improvement in global asset allocation.
"Chinese investors should avoid short-term market timing and instead construct a balanced portfolio of global bonds and stocks, adopting a long-term investment horizon. It is crucial to achieve returns through market exposure and active management, and diversification is essential."
Global focus on the China-U.S. economy: What is the future outlook for the stock markets of both countries?
"The global landscape is characterized by a co-governance dynamic between China and the U.S., with the economic developments of both countries being the focal point of global markets."
During a roundtable discussion, experts emphasized that the U.S. stock market accounts for half of the global market capitalization, while China's stock market represents over 10%. The economic trajectories of these two will become a central focus for global markets. The U.S. continues to develop in high-tech industries and traditional manufacturing, while China is undergoing a transformation from traditional manufacturing to high-tech industries, shaping the economic outlook for both countries.
Regarding the future trends of the U.S. stock market, the roundtable guests noted that although U.S. stock valuations are relatively high, global capital is returning to the U.S. due to uncertainties in other regions. Additionally, the Trump administration’s the deregulatory policies and the revolutionary developments in AI technology have heightened market expectations for tech stocks, providing support for the U.S. market. In the short term, the market may experience volatility due to the Christmas rally and the Republican election victories. However, in the long term, leading companies in the tech sector remain highly favored, with strong growth prospects expected to drive the market.
In contrast, the roundtable guests pointed out that China has nurtured globally competitive companies such as CATL and Tencent, which are relatively undervalued but possess strong competitiveness in overseas markets. These companies are expected to break through trade barriers and deliver substantial returns to shareholders. Additionally, as domestic risk-free interest rates decline, the Chinese stock market is likely to attract more capital inflows. With improvements in the regulatory framework and potential expansions in fiscal policy, the Chinese stock market may replicate the asset growth trend seen in the U.S. in the late 1980s, presenting new opportunities for investors.
2025 ARK Hong Kong Spring Special Summit
At the 2024 ARK Annual Flagship Summit, we were deeply moved by our clients' urgency in exploring major trends and their commitment to embracing a new cycle.
As we step into 2025, ARK remains dedicated to advancing alongside you on the journey of wealth management. To mark this next chapter, we are excited to announce the ARK Hong Kong Spring Special Summit, a platform for authoritative experts to share valuable insights and engage in meaningful discussions. We look forward to seeing you there!
