ARK Exclusive | Insights from Warren Buffett's 2025 Berkshire Hathaway Address
Research Reports
2025-05-04

Each year, the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Meeting transforms into a masterclass in value investing—a revered pilgrimage where investors worldwide gather for their intellectual "value reset." Through the candid Q&A sessions, Warren Buffett offers perspectives that transcend market cycles, delivering insights that remain timeless, long after market conditions change.


Early this morning in Omaha, the 2025 meeting saw Buffett joined on stage by his successor Greg Abel and Vice Chairman of Insurance Operations Ajit Jain. The gathering drew a record-breaking 19,700 attendees, a milestone for what is Berkshire’s 60th shareholder meeting—and potentially Buffett’s last. As Buffett himself noted during the event, he plans to fully hand over the reins to Abel by the end of the year, further reinforcing speculation that his departure may indeed mark the end of an era.


In preparation for the meeting, ARK had Noah Holdings CEO Zander Yin and Olive Asset Management US General Manager Wu Jiaoli deliver forward-looking insights on key themes—many of which became central to the shareholder Q&A. We also welcomed Zhu Ang, founder of the influential financial platform Dianshi Investment (点拾投资) and a respected industry opinion leader, to share his perspective on the meeting's most significant moments and enduring lessons.



A Tribute to Tim Cook


Buffett commenced the meeting by introducing Berkshire's board members and highlighting the milestone of the firm's 60th annual shareholder gathering—marked by a commemorative limited-edition anniversary booklet. Among the distinguished attendees was Apple CEO Tim Cook. With his characteristic humor, Buffett revealed it was Cook's earnings call that ultimately convinced him of Apple's extraordinary business model. He quipped that Cook has generated more wealth for Berkshire shareholders than Buffett himself had prior to the Apple investment—a testament to the power of identifying exceptional businesses led by visionary leaders.



“Trade Should Not Be Weaponized”


Unsurprisingly, the first shareholder question addressed global trade tensions. Buffett revisited his 2003 concept of "import certificates," stressing that nations should focus on what they do best—“the more trade, the better.” He likened tariffs and trade restrictions to acts of economic warfare, warning that long-term protectionist policies would harm the U.S. economy.
He further emphasized that a more prosperous world leads to a more peaceful one. Citing America’s journey from relative obscurity 250 years ago to its current global prominence, Buffett underlined how unprecedented that trajectory has been in history.



On Berkshire’s Massive Cash Reserves


Buffett reflected on his 80-year investing career, noting that most of it has involved waiting patiently. Berkshire is, in his words, a highly “opportunistic” firm, there’s no need to deploy capital merely for the sake of doing so, nor to arbitrarily reduce cash holdings below $50 billion. In fact, he nearly pursued a $10 billion deal recently, and would readily invest $100 billion if the right opportunity emerged.


“Our willingness to remain underinvested at times,is precisely what has made us so much money.” he said.


He also reiterated the importance of focus. “Charlie [Munger] always said I did too many things. But doing five things well in a lifetime beats doing fifty halfheartedly.”


This perspective was echoed in ARK’s pre-meeting commentary. Zander Yin, CEO of Noah Holdings, emphasized the need to avoid blind investing, noting that a single large loss can permanently impair the principal. Historically, Buffett has tended to amass cash ahead of market corrections—ready to strike at the opportune moment.


Wu Jiaoli of Olive US added a powerful anecdote from the Buffett documentary: baseball legend Ted Williams, the last player to bat over .400, succeeded by waiting for the perfect pitch. Buffett applies the same principle in investing—swing only when the timing is right.



On Investing in Japan


One shareholder asked about the Bank of Japan’s divergent monetary policy, tightening while others ease, and whether that might affect Buffett’s enthusiasm for Japanese equities.


Buffett responded by refocusing the discussion on fundamentals. He reiterated his conviction in the quality of the Japanese trading houses and his intention to hold them for 50–60 years, hoping to build deep, enduring partnerships. In hindsight, he quipped, the only regret was not investing $100 billion instead of $20 billion.


This theme also surfaced in ARK’s pre-meeting dialogue. Zander Yin noted that Buffett’s entry into Japan was well-timed, capitalizing on low interest and favorable currency conditions. He also highlighted the global reach of these firms, which makes Japan’s gross national product (GNP) far more substantial than its GDP.


Wu Jiaoli pointed out that Buffett bought the trading firms when valuations were exceptionally low and dividends alone outstripped his cost basis, a clear example of disciplined, value-driven timing.


Looking ahead, Zander Yin also shared Noah’s plans to open a local office in Japan to better serve the investment needs of Chinese clients in the region.



Is Buffett Still Optimistic About the U.S.?


Buffett has long championed America's long-term prosperity. But given today’s shifting dynamics, does he still feel the same?


His answer was a resolute: yes. He argued that America has always undergone transformative change: first an agricultural nation, then an industrial one, then a more inclusive one. The U.S. has survived the Great Depression, two world wars, and still emerged stronger. Buffett joked that his greatest stroke of luck was being born in the U.S.: “I would’ve stayed in the womb negotiating until they let me come out in America.”


Noah Holdings CEO Zander Yin echoed this sentiment in ARK’s pre-meeting session, referencing Buffett’s concept of the “ovarian lottery”, that simply being born in America is itself a winning ticket. Amid global volatility, Buffett has consistently reiterated that the U.S. remains the best long-term bet.


This aligns with ARK’s 2025 CIO report outlook: in an era of rising uncertainty, the optimal strategy is to eliminate inferior options and concentrate on high-probability regions or assets. The U.S. remains an indispensable part of ARK’s global asset allocation strategy



Why Stocks, Not Real Estate?


Buffett was candid: real estate is simply more complex than equities. It involves layers of negotiation, coordination and time, especially for multi-billion-dollar transactions. “With stocks, you can deploy $200 million in five seconds. Try doing that with real estate.”


He emphasized the importance of liquidity and execution speed, qualities the stock market delivers but real estate often lacks.



Patience vs. Acting Fast in Investing


Asked if he had ever broken his rule of patience, Buffett made an important distinction: patience and fast action are not mutually exclusive. He shared a 1966 story about buying a business earning $2 million pre-tax for just $6 million after a brief phone call.


“When a great opportunity appears, you act,” he said. That’s exactly why Berkshire holds so much cash, to be able to move quickly. Hesitation in the face of value is not prudence; it’s a missed opportunity.


He added that many such deals come from trust. Berkshire prefers to transact with individuals they know and respect, not faceless institutions.



Early Lessons: The People Around You Matter


Buffett emphasized that success is deeply connected to the people you surround yourself with. Spending time with smart people, rather than merely wealthy ones, is a crucial principle. Buffett has always sought to associate with intelligent individuals. But if you can't find them immediately, that's alright, live earnestly and diligently, and you'll inevitably encounter mentors who will guide you.


Buffett recalled his first visit to GEICO, finding the door locked and not knowing who was inside. Ten minutes later, he met someone who would profoundly influence his life. Addressing the young American who asked the question, he added that we should not worry about luck—simply being born in America means you've already won the lottery of fortune. There are many successful people worldwide, but not all Americans make the right choices with their advantages.



Market Corrections: “It’s Really Nothing”


Questions about recent equity and FX volatility were frequent. Buffett shrugged them off: “It’s really nothing.” Berkshire has endured three 50% drawdowns over 60 years with no fundamental issues.


He recalled that the Dow Jones Index was at 240 when he was born in 1930 and later fell to 41. Last Friday, it passed 41,300. “If a 15% drop in your stock makes you panic, your investing approach needs a rethink.”


Similarly, Berkshire doesn’t make FX or quarterly decisions—it plays the long game.



Capital Allocation: Abel’s Sweet Spot


Capital allocation, a core reason for Berkshire’s enduring success, is the area where Greg Abel excels. Berkshire evaluates a company’s vision before deciding whether to acquire it outright or buy shares. What matters is having enough dry powder to move decisively when conditions are right.


Buffett reiterated that dividend-paying companies allow Berkshire to redeploy capital efficiently, increasing long-term returns. With dozens of listed and private holdings, Berkshire maximizes shareholder value through intelligent capital flows, a discipline few firms match.



On Succession and Abel’s Future


Buffett avoided directly answering why he chose Greg Abel, but said succession is like marriage: “Work with people you admire. Don’t worry about salary early in your career—find what you love.”


He praised Abel’s operational capabilities and strategic judgment. “The challenge isn’t just investing; it’s doing the right thing with Berkshire’s resources. Abel can do both.”


At the close of the meeting, Buffett announced he’ll propose stepping down as CEO by year-end, marking the formal end of the Buffett era. While he’ll remain at Berkshire, investment decisions will rest with Abel, who Buffett believes can lead for decades to come.



Additional Highlights from the Shareholder Meeting


The following are selected Q&A highlights from the 2025 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting, compiled based on the official livestream and with reference to translations and coverage from Yicai and Wallstreetcn.


Q: How Will AI Impact the Insurance Industry?


This question was addressed by Ajit Jain, head of Berkshire’s insurance operations. Jain acknowledged that artificial intelligence has the potential to fundamentally reshape how the insurance industry assesses, prices, and distributes risk, as well as how it processes claims. However, he emphasized that Berkshire is unlikely to be a first mover.

“Some insurance companies are indeed experimenting with AI and exploring how best to leverage it,” Jain said. “But we have not yet consciously committed significant capital to seize this opportunity. I suspect we’ll be well-prepared, and once the timing is right, we’ll move swiftly.”

Buffett added that the decision to integrate AI into Berkshire’s insurance businesses over the next decade will rest entirely with Jain.


Q: What’s Berkshire’s View on GEICO?


Buffett recalled that Berkshire initially acquired a partial stake in GEICO in the 1970s for $50 million, a decision that ultimately delivered extraordinary long-term returns. Today, Berkshire owns 100% of the company, which can generate as much as $2 billion in quarterly profit. But this success, Buffett noted, was the result of decades of consistent investment and operational improvement.

A century ago, auto insurance was virtually nonexistent. Today, it stands alongside property and casualty coverage as one of the largest segments in the insurance industry. GEICO, with $29 billion in liquid assets, remains a highly profitable franchise. “Buying GEICO for $50 million was one of our best investments,” Buffett said.

Founded in 1936 by a former government employee, GEICO turned a profit in its first year and expanded rapidly, eventually going public. As more Americans took to the road, auto insurance became a necessity, and GEICO rode the wave.

Buffett noted that GEICO’s growth wasn’t without setbacks. The company tripled in size over just a few years, faced challenges, and later got back on track. “We’ve talked about GEICO nearly every year at this meeting,” he said.

He also praised current CEO Todd Combs for leading a successful turnaround. What was once considered a weakness, GEICO’s lag in telematics technology is no longer a disadvantage. Under Combs, the company streamlined its workforce, cutting thousands of positions to significantly enhance efficiency.


Q: What’s Buffett’s View on Investing in Mongolia?
(Question asked by a shareholder from Mongolia)


Buffett recalled attending a shareholder meeting some two decades ago where he first heard about Mongolia. “So I do have some understanding of the country—but that was a long time ago,” he said.

He acknowledged that Berkshire continues to review government reports and evaluate whether there are business opportunities with real potential. But Berkshire does not invest overseas lightly. “Unless we see something truly substantial in scale and long-term value, we won’t move forward.”

Buffett pushed back on the idea that investors must chase returns in high-inflation markets. “That’s not how we approach things,” he said. At present, Berkshire has no short-term investment plans in Mongolia, unless an exceptionally compelling project comes along.


Q: How Does Berkshire View Private Equity Competition in Insurance?


Ajit Jain addressed this question directly, admitting that private equity’s entry into the insurance sector has made it significantly harder for Berkshire to compete. “There’s no question, private equity has entered this space in force. In fact, over the past three to four years, I don’t believe we’ve completed a single deal in this area.”

He explained that PE firms often use higher leverage and more aggressive investment strategies. When the economy is strong and credit spreads are tight, they can earn substantial returns, particularly in life insurance.

“But there’s always a risk,” Jain warned. “At some point, regulators may decide that the risk being assumed on behalf of policyholders is simply too great, and the consequences could be serious.” Given that risk-reward profile, Jain said, “We’ve chosen to raise the white flag. We’re no longer competing with private equity in the life insurance space.”

Buffett added that many firms try to replicate Berkshire’s model, but their CEOs typically do not have their entire net worth invested in the company.

“That’s the difference,” he said. “Our fiduciary sense of responsibility is personal. If things go wrong at Berkshire, I’ll spend the rest of my life regretting it. That’s not something you’ll find in most other firms. In the property and casualty space, no one can truly copy what we’ve built.”


Q: How Should One Deal with Life’s Setbacks?


Buffett responded: "Everyone faces low points, and everyone eventually dies—that's simply part of life's journey. The lows are universal." Turning to the young shareholder from Shanghai who asked the question, he offered perspective: “Would you rather have been born 100 years ago in China, or right now?”

His message was clear—despite setbacks, the world is steadily becoming a better place.


Q: Will Autonomous Vehicles Disrupt GEICO?


Buffett began his response by recalling a piece of wisdom from Charlie Munger. “When we first got into textiles, we had no way of foreseeing how the industry would evolve.”

The world is constantly changing, Buffett said. “It’s like baseball or golf, not every swing will be a home run, and not every stroke will land on the green. You have to accept that mistakes are inevitable.”

Autonomous driving is undeniably a critical issue for the insurance industry. But Buffett emphasized that full commercialization has yet to arrive, and the U.S. hasn’t advanced large-scale deployment.

“No one can predict exactly what the insurance sector will look like 100 years from now,” he said. “But one thing is certain: the world is dynamic. People love to drive. And while we want to protect the planet, that journey won’t be easy.”
He reflected on Einstein’s theory of relativity, published in 1905, which eventually led to the development of nuclear weapons, consequences that even Einstein could not have foreseen. “I was born in 1930 and lived through the aftermath,” Buffett said.

He noted that we’ve seen unpredictable developments from countries like North Korea, and the uncertainty they bring is unlikely to disappear any time soon.

“Yet even with all the change and risk,” Buffett continued, “our lives today are dramatically better than they were a century ago. This is probably the most fortunate era in human history.”

The insurance industry, he said, has done well overall, though not everything can be controlled. “If you don’t know how to swing a club, don’t play golf,” he quipped.

Buffett also raised the issue of legal and operational uncertainty tied to autonomous vehicles. Product liability and accident response policies still lack clarity. As cars become more technologically complex, repair costs have risen sharply, posing new challenges.

He offered a personal reference point: “When I joined GEICO in 1950, the average annual premium was about $40, depending on the state. Today, $2,000 per year is the norm. But traffic fatalities have fallen dramatically. In that sense, driving today is much safer.”

Looking ahead, Buffett acknowledged that the direction of the industry remains difficult to predict. “You have to analyze it through a combination of research, facts, and data.”

He also pointed to other structural changes, such as in energy, healthcare, and the political environment, which may reshape industry fundamentals. In business, he said, there are rarely definitive “answers,” only “action points.”
“The rules of the game have changed. That’s why every day, you have to reexamine how to run your business.”


Q: A 14-Year-Old Girl Wants to Work at Berkshire—What Should She Do?


Greg Abel responded warmly: “Hard work and a willingness to contribute will take you far. We truly look forward to the day you join the Berkshire family.”

Buffett added, “Stay curious. Read as much as you can.”


Q: How Does Berkshire Strategically Manage Wildfire Risk in Its Utilities?


Addressing the growing threat of wildfires, Greg Abel noted, “It’s not going away.” He explained that in some instances, Berkshire has had to shut off power equipment during fire events. “This isn’t as simple as flipping a switch,” he said, pointing to complex scenarios in fire-prone states like California and Texas. “Where we invest comes down to prioritizing safety first.”

When asked about liability during wildfire incidents, Abel made it clear: “We can’t be the insurer of last resort. We can’t be held accountable for everything that happens.”

Buffett reassured shareholders that Berkshire would not waste their capital on ventures it views as unwise. “It’s always easier to do something dumb with other people’s money than your own,” he quipped. “That’s one of the issues with government, and we don’t want to bring that mindset into the private sector.”


Q: A Fan Asked Buffett for a Personal Meeting—What’s His Advice?


Buffett shared a personal anecdote from his early days as an investor. “I used to drive across the country visiting companies. Back then, they didn’t have investor relations departments. Sometimes the CEO would meet me directly.”
He admitted he was often unsure whether he’d be received, so he would always prepare two very specific questions in advance. “That’s not a bad strategy. If you want to meet someone for ten minutes, make sure you know exactly what to say and what to ask. You should set the terms, not them.”

Buffett remarked that most companies today have entire IR departments whose job is to convince you to buy their stock. “But you can still explore the world in your own way. At Berkshire, we do things differently, we don’t copy others.”

He noted that today, with over 40,000 attendees at the meeting, it simply isn’t feasible to grant everyone a one-hour audience. “But I truly admire your passion and persistence,” he told the fan. “This is the best way I can respond.”


Q: What’s the Rationale Behind Berkshire Acquiring the Remaining Stake in Its Energy Business?


Buffett was frank: “The utility business just isn’t as attractive as it used to be.” He attributed this to societal changes and evolving regulations. “Value changes, and it doesn’t always go up.”

He discussed the broader opportunity in the U.S. energy sector and Berkshire’s potential role. “The solution lies in a public-private partnership—just like during wartime. I don’t think the government poured concrete itself when building the Interstate Highway System.”

He added, “We have the capital. And we have some of the technical expertise that only a few others possess.”


Q: What’s the Outlook for Berkshire’s Profit Growth?


Buffett acknowledged that utility revenues might come under pressure. “Our profits aren’t solely driven by acquisitions, but yes, we do make acquisitions from time to time. We invested $10 billion this year.”

He noted that opportunity often depends on market conditions and investor sentiment. “Some people are just pessimistic. I was born in the 1930s and have lived through very tough times. There were moments when I saw great opportunities but hesitated, and missed them. That’s happened more than once in my life.”

He added that he avoids engaging in things he doesn’t fully understand “like walking a tightrope.” But in financial markets, he’s often comfortable with risks that scare others.

“If Berkshire’s stock dropped by half tomorrow, I’d see that as a buying opportunity. A lot of people wouldn’t react the same way. It’s not that I don’t have emotions, it’s that price volatility doesn’t cloud my judgment of value.”
He concluded that Berkshire’s earnings power should continue to grow over time. “What we must do is retain what we earn, and then allocate it rationally. Everyone has different capabilities and risk tolerance, and those differences are what create opportunity in markets.”


Q: What’s Buffett’s View on Big Tech Stocks?


Buffett noted that major tech companies are making significant capital investments, especially in AI. “They’ve made a lot of money and have invested a lot too.”

He likened it to Coca-Cola owning its own bottling plants, initial investments are heavy, but taper off over time. “The upfront capex may be big, machinery, infrastructure, but ongoing needs are smaller.”

He added, “It will be fascinating to see how capital intensity evolves for the so-called Magnificent Seven. Many people have become wealthy simply by observing how others invest.”


Q: Is Dogecoin Good or Bad for America’s Long-Term Future?


Buffett laughed before answering: “Why do you have to ask me the hardest questions?”

He pivoted to a broader concern, government inefficiency. “The bureaucratic structure of governments has always puzzled me. In capitalist markets, inefficiencies tend to spread like contagion. Even at Berkshire, we have areas that could be streamlined.”

“But governments are governments,” he continued. “They don’t really have an ‘upper management’ that oversees them. That’s what makes me uneasy about governance and fiscal sustainability.”

He warned against elected officials who say one thing and do another: “That’s what really worries me.”

Buffett stressed that political leaders who have wealth but no credibility are a major red flag. He criticized the U.S. government’s failure to address fiscal deficits over the long term. “It’s never been truly solved.”

“As far as the U.S. is concerned, our current deficit trajectory simply can’t continue indefinitely. We don’t know whether it will last two years or twenty, but no country has ever done what we’re doing now. It’s unsustainable.”

Sometimes, he said, people know something can’t last, but still don’t know how to stop it. “Eventually, you just throw up your hands. Back in the day, it was Paul Volcker who saved America from runaway inflation. But now we’re facing similar consequences from past policies.”

Buffett was candid: “Fixing the fiscal system isn’t a job I’d want, but it’s a job someone has to do.” Unfortunately, he noted, Congress seems unwilling to address it.

“We’re a great country,” he said, “with more innovative talent than anywhere else in the world. But we also have deep structural issues. When something goes wrong, it may not explode overnight, but it will fester.”

He acknowledged that governance systems should have built-in checks and balances, just like businesses do. “Even the best companies aren’t without problems.”

Buffett ended with a warning on currency devaluation. “All of this hinges on having a currency that holds its value. If everyone who trusts the system ends up betrayed, while those gaming the system get richer, what does that do to social cohesion? I don’t think you want to live in a society that operates like that.”


Q: If You Could Travel Back to 1776, How Would You Lay the Foundations for U.S. Capitalism and Long-Term Prosperity?


Buffett responded, “When people are most pessimistic, that’s when we make our best deals.” He reaffirmed his belief that Berkshire will continue to grow its earnings power, though that growth won’t necessarily be linear.

He also defended Berkshire’s long-standing philosophy of not using other people’s capital to invest, emphasizing the value of independence and accountability.

Buffett described American capitalism as a beacon of success and offered a memorable metaphor: “It’s like a grand cathedral, with a casino attached. This economic system we’ve built is unlike anything the world has ever seen. But next to it is a very large casino. And these days, the temptation is to walk into the casino.”

He elaborated: “Inside the cathedral, people are designing systems to produce goods and services for over 300 million people. That scale is unprecedented in history.”

Although it’s tempting to spend all your time and energy in the metaphorical casino, Buffett stressed the importance of balance. “The casino is fun, fast, and flush with money, but you still have to nourish the cathedral. In the next 100 years, America must ensure the casino doesn’t consume it.”

He added, “We’ve created a fascinating system, and it works. But the way capitalism distributes returns can often seem arbitrary and erratic.”


Q: What’s Berkshire’s Approach to Managing Subsidiaries?


Abel explained that since 2018, he has deepened his understanding of Berkshire’s diverse businesses. He praised Buffett’s depth of knowledge and willingness to share insights, especially when it comes to identifying risks in a business model. “Whenever we encounter a challenge, we reach out immediately.”

Their collaboration focuses on strategic frameworks, assessing industry trends or evaluating the rationale behind a potential direction. But when it comes to daily operations, Abel emphasized that Berkshire’s business units enjoy a high degree of autonomy.

“If there’s a sudden opportunity in an industry or we want to pursue a new initiative, we’ll consult Warren. But in execution, we have freedom,” Abel said. “Berkshire chooses managers who know their sectors well, GEICO for example. Especially in an industry like insurance, where recent years have seen immense change, a visionary leader makes all the difference.”

Buffett, with a chuckle, added, “Greg is incredibly serious about his work, sometimes I wish I were more like an artist and took things a bit easier. But truthfully, if your business is doing well, you never have to worry about being fired.”

“Greg is exceptional. Not everyone is cut out to be a manager. Some people need instructions. Others walk out the moment you give them one, I don’t fault them for that. But Greg is different. He’s self-driven, open to advice, and truly leads.”

At Berkshire, Buffett explained, there’s no single way to manage. “Some people are admirable leaders, others aren’t. But you can always judge the quality of a management team by the tone it sets, if the culture starts to slip, leadership must take responsibility.”

He shared an anecdote about a retail employee who gave friends unauthorized discounts. “They meant well, but it still violated policy. That kind of behavior is contagious.”

“We don’t want to see senior leaders rewriting the rules for personal gain. Once that starts, the whole organization can veer off course.”


Q: What’s Berkshire’s View on Environmental Change?


Abel addressed this question by noting that environmental considerations are integrated into Berkshire’s decisions when investing in or acquiring energy companies. These strategies must align with both federal and state regulatory frameworks.
He shared the example of Iowa in the early 2000s, which faced an energy shortage due to its reliance on coal-fired power. Abel worked closely with the state governor to explore long-term solutions.

With support from lawmakers, Iowa launched one of the largest wind energy projects in the country, an effort led by Berkshire. The company invested $16 billion and decommissioned a number of coal plants in the process.
Still, Abel acknowledged, “We need coal-fired plants to ensure grid reliability.”

He stressed that the expansion of renewable and non-carbon energy must proceed within the framework of national requirements. “All of our energy decisions have fully complied with federal and state guidelines. We respect each state’s process and partner with them accordingly.”

Abel concluded with a caution: “We can’t afford a repeat of what happened in Spain and Portugal.” He was referring to recent rolling blackouts across the Iberian Peninsula, an outcome that underscores why Berkshire continues to rely on coal power in certain markets to maintain sufficient energy output.

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