Since 2020, the world has entered an unprecedented era of uncertainty. Geopolitical conflicts have escalated continuously, supply chains have remained structurally fragmented, and monetary policies have fluctuated drastically between easing and tightening, leading to the frequent failure of traditional investment paradigms.

We anticipate increased global market volatility in 2025. Key drivers include geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the U.S. presidential transition, desynchronized monetary policies among major global economies, and the extension of the AI large model "arms race" from upstream infrastructure to mid-and-downstream applications.

As Drucker said: "The most inefficient thing in the world is to do something that is not worth doing with high efficiency." This statement implies the importance of cognitive correctness. Just as we take an elevator, we must first ensure we are on an upward elevator. If the elevator is going down, we should choose to get off and take the stairs. If we are on an upward elevator, what we do inside is no longer the most important issue.

At the start of 2024, Noah CIO Office recommends that high-net-worth clients focus on small certainties in investments, and pay more attention to current security and family well‑being.

In the first half of 2023, the ongoing banking crisis, the Silicon Valley Bank and CS crisis, and the technical recession in Europe have all made economic recession, de-globalization and worries unreasonable. Macro high uncertainty has left room for the operation of diversified and multi-element allocation strategies. We advise Noah's high-net-worth clients and family offices to conduct a comprehensive review and adjustment of asset allocation at key nodes: first, a comprehensive safety check of liabilities, then adjustment of position allocation, and finally, layout through various types of portfolio investments to achieve "anti-fragile" strategic asset allocation and tactical asset allocation.

In 2022, we advise Noah's clients to re-examine their own and their families' asset allocation, actively rebalance asset allocation from the perspective of "Protect First, Grow Later", and make family asset allocation safer and more effective.